According to Epstein in Critical Thinking, there are three requirements to test if an argument is true. They are: (1) The premises are plausible, (2) the premises are more plausible than the conclusion, and (3) the argument is valid or strong. In other words the foundation must be reasonable and more credible than the conclusion and also be strong or valid. A argument, for example, states:
It has been raining for the past three days and the sky is still cloudy. Dark cloudy skies usually indicate that there will be rain. So it will rain today.
It has true premises and the argument is strong. It is true because it is likely for it to rain for three days straight, even more because weather is unpredictable. The conclusion may be false but the premises is more reasonable than the conclusion. This is because the reasoning is good because clouds cause rain.
I like your example of how to test for an argument to be true. It was simple and easy to spot the three different truth tests. Whenever I see dark clouds in the sky I usually assume that it means there will be rain, but many of the times it stays dry. This also is a good example to test because the weather is so unpredictable. Almost all statements involving what the weather will be like in the future aren't one hundred percent correct because it can change at any time causing the argument to become false.
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